The start of the conflict on February 28 has clearly left its mark on Dubai’s real estate market.
After entering the year on very strong footing, the market saw an immediate slowdown in activity.
However, looking closely at the Dubai Land Department records tracked by The Real Estate Reports, the story isn’t just about falling volumes, it’s about a market that is pausing rather than breaking.
The immediate impact: A sharp drop in liquidity
The most visible change happened in the first full week after February 28. If we look at the headline totals, which include land deals, the numbers show a significant cooling effect.
In Week 9 (Feb 23–Mar 1), the market saw Dhs20.72bn across 5,473 transactions. By Week 10 (Mar 02–08), those figures dropped to Dhs10.37bn across 3,038 transactions. That is a 49.9 per cent decline in value and 44.5 per cent fewer deals week-on-week.
To get an even clearer picture, we can look at just the weekdays (Monday to Friday) to avoid the typical weekend data lulls. The five weekdays before the conflict saw Dhs20.41bn in activity, while the five weekdays after saw Dhs10.16bn. Essentially, the market’s “run-rate” cut in half almost immediately.
A stable structure: off-plan still leads
One of the most interesting findings in the recent data is that the “shape” of the market didn’t flip. Even with the geopolitical tension, off-plan properties continued to dominate.
In Week 9, off-plan made up 62.4 per cent of built-property value. In Week 10, that share actually grew slightly to 66.2 per cent. This suggests that investors haven’t abandoned long-term plays. Off-plan flats remain the core driver, making up about 78 per cent of all off-plan value in Week 10. The ready market followed a similar pattern, remaining largely apartment-led.
High-end resilience and mortgages
While overall sales cooled, the luxury end of the market proved it still has a pulse. On March 4, a single apartment at Aman Residences (Jumeirah Second) transacted for Dhs422m. Deals like this serve as a reminder that high-ticket liquidity hasn’t disappeared; the top end of the market tends to operate on its own logic, even during periods of caution.
Mortgage registrations also eased but stayed meaningful, representing about 19 per cent of the total market value in Week 10. These registrations remain heavily concentrated in the ready-property segment, where financing is most common.
The bottom line: A “risk-off” pause
It is important to keep the broader context in mind. Dubai entered this period in a position of extreme strength. Total market value in 2025 reached Dhs841.7bn (up from Dhs665.4bn in 2024), and January 2026 was nearly double the previous year.
The current data reflects a “risk-off” environment where buyers are exercising caution.
Activity is still clustering in familiar hubs like Dubai Marina, Palm Jumeirah, Burj Khalifa, and Business Bay.
In short: the market has slowed down, but it isn’t broken. The structural preference for off-plan and the occasional massive luxury transaction suggest that while the “run-rate” is lower for now, the fundamental interest in Dubai real estate remains intact.